Monday, November 19, 2007

Obama's real chance.

Does Obama have a shot at the winning the Democratic Nomination? He has one according to Juan Gomez of NPR
and Fox New Sunday with Chris Wallace.

If John Edwards attempt at nomination dies, then which way will those supporting John Edwards go. For the last several months we have seen Hillary's poll numbers rise. I think that has come mostly from those originally support Edwards and think Hillary is an acceptable alternative. However if he falls apart, like his getting booed this weekend, then I think the 12% to 21% polling that he gets

would then go to Obama. Notice in the national poll, there is 18% undecided. Undecided is interesting because that is a group of people not supporting Hillary. How much more do you need to know to decide whether to support Hillary. It think that is 18% hoping someone comes around that they can support besides Hillary. Add the 12% John is getting to the 18% undecided and then to Obama's 24% he is getting and that's 54%. Can he get all of that 12 and 18, probably not but all he needs is more than her 38%. I suspect if he begins to pull closer to her, we could see that 38% erode. Realize that Bill Clinton was originally elected by 43% of the electorate thanks to Ross Perot taking 20% of the vote. Right now Hillary is winning by splitting those voting against her between John and Obama. Can Obama turn that around. We will see.

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